Friday, November 21, 2008

Don't Know Much About Economics

as I said yesterday, but here's someone who agrees with me:
Welcome to the world of macroeconomics. Even the wisest president and most skilled secretary of the Treasury doing whatever it takes isn't enough if you don't know what it takes. And there's no way of knowing.
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After all the changes in policy and the uses of the TARP that have been announced in the last six weeks, I suspect that confidence and a desire to invest are no longer under the control of the Treasury secretary or the president. If anything, many of Paulson's relentless efforts to move markets forward have made the situation worse.
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Obama's only practical suggestion has been to support the idea floating around Congress for a stimulus package of $100 billion or more.

That doesn't exactly meet expectations of doing whatever it takes. That's doing what we've already done.

We tried a $160 billion stimulus package last spring. That accomplished very little. What's the argument for spending $100 billion to revive a $14 trillion economy? A $14 trillion economy where the government has just spent a few hundred billion and counting on financial bailouts and capital injections. To no avail. Does anyone really think that we haven't spent enough?
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What if markets are spooked by the specter of government spending without any constraints? What if doing whatever it takes means doing less, rather than more?
I have a fair chunk of change sitting in my bank account. I sought advice on how to invest it a few months ago. Stock market, I was told. Through sheer inertia, I haven't gotten around to doing anything. If I had, I would now be looking at a loss of at least 10%. And at this point, I'm afraid to invest. I can't be the only one out here who's waiting to see what Obama really plans to do, because no one knows.

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